Iran's oil exports have fallen sharply since US President Donald Trump announced that he would re-impose sanctions on Iran, but with exceptions Iranian oil buyers are already planning to raise their demands again.
The original objective of the sanctions was to reduce Iran's exports as much as possible, to cancel its missile programs and to reduce its support for some activities in the region.
However, the exemptions granted to the largest Iranian oil customers - China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan and Turkey - which allow them to import some oil for at least another 180 days may mean that exports may begin to rise after November. These countries represent three-quarters of Iran's seaborne oil exports.
As a result of Washington's pressure ahead of the sanctions, Iran's oil exports in November may not exceed 1.5 million barrels per day, making it less than a third of its export peak in mid-2018. According to some forecasts, Iran's exports could fall to 1.1 million bpd in November.
The Japanese minister of trade said today that his country is expected to resume imports of Iranian oil after obtaining exemptions from US sanctions. Both Japan and South Korea both close allies of the United States forced to stop buying Iranian crude.
India, Iran's second-biggest oil consumer, has also cut down its purchases. Even China, which entered into a trade war with the United States, bowing to US sanctions and scraping its imports.
