Barclays forecasts for British data this week

20 Feb 2018 11:54 AM

Barclays analysts expect UK economic data to be neutral this week. The Bank expects the jobs report to be largely unchanged next Wednesday and unemployment will stabilize at 4.3% for the sixth month in a row, wages also expected to print a 2.5% increase, while the core wages may rise by 2.3%.

On the other hand, the Bank expects GDP data to be confirmed on Thursday and the economy to grow by 0.5% on quarterly basis, assuming the services index to remain in line with its recent trends of 0.1% on a monthly basis.

Also, consumption growth is expected to slow, but capital spending may pick up, while monthly trade data indicate a negative contribution of net exports.

On Wednesday, markets are awaiting testimony from Mark Carney, governor of BoE and some members of the Bank before the Treasury Committee on the latest inflation report. Markets are already pricing in tightening monetary policy this year.

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